प्रकाशकुमार श्रेष्ठ २०६६ माघ ४ कान्तिपुर
सात वर्षपछि नेपालको शोधनान्तर स्थिति फेरि घाटामा गएको छ । शोधनान्तर स्थितिले बाह्य देशसँग लेनदेनमा भुक्तानीको स्थितिलाई देखाउँछ । घाटाको अर्थ हुन्छ, वैदेशिक देशसँग कारोबारमा नेपालले गर्नुपरेको भुक्तानी यसले प्राप्त गरेको रकमभन्दा बढी हुनु हो । बाह्य कारोबारका दुई खातामध्ये चालु खाता अन्तर्गत वस्तु तथा सेवाहरूको आयात-निर्यातको भुक्तानी, विप्रेषण आप्रवाह, वैदेशिक अनुदान पर्छन् भने पुँजीगत खातामा वैदेशिक लगानी र वैदेशिक ऋणको प्रवाहलाई समेटिन्छ ।
आर्थिक वर्षको पहिलो चौमासिक तथ्याङ्कलाई हेर्दा नेपालको भुक्तान सन्तुलन साढे २० अर्बले घाटामा गएको छ । यसको अर्थ हुन्छ, यो अवधिमा त्यति रकम बराबरको विदेशी मुद्रा खुदमा विदेश प्रवाह भयो । यसले गर्दा गत आर्थिक वर्षको मसान्तको तुलनामा सो बराबरको खुद वैदेशिक सम्पत्तिमा ह्रास आएको छ । फलस्वरूप विदेशी मुद्राको संचिती सो अवधिमा ३१ अर्ब रुपैयाँले घटेको छ । यसमध्ये ६ अर्ब २८ करोड अन्तर्राष्ट्रिय मुद्राकोषमा भएको कोटा वृद्धिमा, ४ अर्ब रुपैयाँ विनिमय दरमा आएको कमीले घटेको देखिन्छ भने बाँकी खर्च बाह्य कारोबारसँग सम्बन्धित छ ।
पहिलो चार महिनाको बाह्य कारोबारलाई विश्लेषण गर्ने हो भने चालु खाता घाटा १३ अर्ब ९४ करोड छ । यसमध्ये व्यापार घाटा ४८.९ प्रतिशतले बढेर ९६ अर्ब २१ करोड पुगेको छ । यसको मतलब नेपालले त्यो अवधिमा निर्यातभन्दा त्यति मात्राले बढी आयात गर्यो । भुक्तान असन्तुलनको मुख्य जड यही हो । निर्यात/आयात अनुपात १६.८ प्रतिशत रह्न गएको छ । नेपालको सेवा व्यापार पनि पहिलो चौमासिकमा ५ अर्बले घाटामा छ । यसरी वस्तु तथा सेवा गरी १०१ अर्बभन्दा बढीको घाटा हुन गएको छ ।
कमजोर निर्यात, बढ्दो आन्तरिक माग र खस्कँदो अर्थतन्त्रले गर्दा व्यापार घाटाको प्रवृत्ति नेपालका निम्ति नौलो होइन । केही वर्षयता उल्लेख्य व्यापार घाटा हुँदाहुँदै चालु खातासँगै शोधनान्तर बचत पनि रहँदै आएको थियो । उदाहरणका लागि गत आर्थिक वर्ष २२० अर्बको वस्तु तथा सेवाको घाटा पूर्ति गर्नेगरी २१० अर्बको विप्रेषण, २७ अर्ब वैदेशिक नगद अनुदान, १८ अर्बको पेन्सन आएको थियो । फलस्वरूप ४१ अर्ब शोधनान्तर बचत भएको थियो । तर विश्वव्यापी आर्थिक मंदीले गर्दा गत वर्ष ६६ प्रतिसतले बढेको रेमिट्यान्स यो वर्षको प्रथम चौमासमा ६.६ प्रतिशतले मात्र बढेको छ । राजनीतिक अन्योलतासँगै वैदेशिक नगद अनुदान र ऋण आप्रवाह पनि घटेको छ । त्यस्तै निर्यात २३.७ प्रतिशतले घटेको छ । तर आयातमा भने खासै कमी आएको छैन ।
यसरी तथ्याङ्कले के देखाउँछ भने शोधनान्तर घाटा हुनुको मुख्य कारणमा कमजोर निर्यात, बढ्दो आयात र खस्कँदो रेमिट्यान्स हो । यसले गर्दा नेपालको बाह्य सन्तुलन जोखिमपूर्ण छ । आर्थिक उदारीकरणको नीतिसँगै चालु खाता खोलेर आयात/निर्यात खुला रहेकोले विश्व बजारबाट आयात गर्न सहज भएको छ । त्यसैले छिमेकी देशबाट सस्तो आयातित वस्तुको बाढी लागेको छ । तर नेपालको निर्यात क्षमता भने बढ्नसकेको छैन । आन्तरिक द्वन्द्व, बिग्रँदो आन्तरिक श्रम सम्बन्ध, भौतिक पूर्वाधारको अभाव र ऊर्जाको अभावले उत्पादनशीलता ज्यादै कमजोर छ । यसरी आन्तरिक र बाह्य कारणले गर्दा औद्योगिक उत्पादन खस्कँदो छ र बेरोजगारी बढ्दो छ । केही मात्रामा वनस्पति घ्यु, हस्तकला, तयारी पोसाक, गलैंचाजस्ता निम्न प्रविधियुक्त वस्तुहरूको निर्यात गरेर नेपालले निर्यात क्षमता बढाउने कुनै लक्षण देखिँदैन ।
आयाततर्फ हेर्दा अत्यावश्यक वस्तुदेखि विलासिताका वस्तुहरूको आयात बढ्दो छ । चालु आर्थिक वर्षको पहिलो चार महिनामा १२ अर्बको पेट्रोलियम पदार्थ, झन्डै ८ अर्बको गाडी र गाडीका पार्टपुर्जा आयात भयो । अझ मुख्य कुरा त सो अवधिमा १९ अर्ब २६ करोडको सुन आयात भएको छ, प्रतिमहिना झन्डै ५ अर्ब बराबरले । गत वर्षको त्यही अवधि ७ अर्ब र अझ अघिल्लो आर्थिक वर्षको यही अवधिमा २ अर्ब मात्रैको सुन आयात भएको थियो । सुनको आयात र शोधनान्तर घाटाको मात्रा झन्डै बराबर रहेको छ । यसरी उच्च व्यापार घाटासँगैको भुक्तान असन्तुलनको मुख्य कारण अत्यधिक सुनको आयात रहेको देखिन्छ ।
किन सुनको आयात बढ्यो त, अनुसन्धानको खाँचो छ । अमेरिकी वित्त संकटसँगै सिर्जना भएको आर्थिक मन्दी र विश्वको सेयर बजारमा आएको शिथिलतासँगै विश्वव्यापी रूपमा नै सुनको माग र मूल्य दुवै बढेको छ । नेपालमा पनि त्यहीअनरूप सञ्चितिको लागि सुन खरिद बढ्दै गएको देखिन्छ । त्यसमा पनि केही समय लागू भएको सरकारको कडा करनीतिले गर्दा घर-जग्गाजस्ता भौतिक सम्पत्ति र वित्तीय संस्थाहरूको बचतमा सरकारी नजर पर्नसक्ने डरले सम्पन्न वर्गले सुनतर्फ लगानी बढाएको छ । एकातर्फ यसको आधिकारिक रूपमा खोजी नीति गर्न गाह्रो पर्ने र बढ्दो मूल्य वृद्धिसँगै पुँजीगत लाभ हुने देखेर सुन खरिद बढेको देखिन्छ । नेपालको सेयर बजार पनि संविधानसभाको चुनावपछि खस्कँदै जानुले लगानीकर्ताहरू सुनतर्फ आकषिर्त भएका हुनसक्छन् ।
संविधानसभाको चुनावपछि पनि राजनीतिक अन्योलता बढ्दै गएको र लगानीको वातावरण नबनेकोले आन्तरिक उत्पादन घट्दै गएको छ भने उपभोग बढ्दै गएको छ । आयातमा अधिकांश उपभोग्य वस्तुहरू हुनु र मेसिनरी वस्तुहरूको आयात भने कम रहने प्रवृत्तिले अर्थतन्त्रको क्षमता नबढ्ने तर परनिर्भता भने बढ्दै जाने निश्चित छ ।
उत्पादनमा आधुनिकता आउन नसके पनि नेपालीको उपभोग शैली आधुनिकीकरण भएको छ । महँगा र विलासिताका विदेशी वस्तुहरू उपभोग गर्दा प्रतिष्ठा बढ्ने मान्यता छ । अझ बढ्दो आय असमानताले गर्दा केही सीमित वर्गले महँगा आयातित वस्तु उपभोग गर्नसक्ने हैसियत पनि राख्छन् । साथै केही वर्षदेखि बढ्दै गएको रेमिट्यान्सको प्रवाहले पनि उपभोगसँगै आयात बढाउन र थेग्नसकेको छ । रेमिट्यान्समुखी भइसकेको नेपाली अर्थतन्त्र, यो घट्न गएमा ठूलै झड्का पाउने देखिन्छ । रेमिट्यान्समा शिथिलता आइसकेको र यसले बाह्य असन्तुलन देखाइसकेको छ ।
राजनीतिक दलदलले विदेश पलायन हुनेको संख्या बढ्दै गएको छ भने यससँगै केही हदसम्मको पुँजी पलायन भएकोलाई नकार्न नसकिएला । अमेरिका, अष्ट्रेलिया र क्यानाडातर्फ नेपालीको बढ्दो आप्रवाससँगै विदेशी मुद्रा पनि बाहिरिएको छ । त्यस्तै नेपालको अस्तव्यस्ताले गर्दा झन्डै महिनाको चार हजार विद्यार्थी उच्चशिक्षाको लागि विदेशिने गरेका छन् । अनि विदेशी मुद्रा आउने पर्यटन पनि धरापपूर्ण स्थितिमा छ ।
रेमिट्यान्स बाहेक विदेशी मुद्रा आम्दानीको दरो स्रोत नभएको र वैदेशिक रोजगारीको अवस्था पनि विश्वव्यापी आर्थिक मन्दीमा परेको कारण नेपालको बाह्य कारोबार असन्तुलित रहने देखिन्छ । यही दरले शोधनान्तर घाटा बढ्दै जाने हो भने विदेशी मुद्राको सञ्चितिमा दबाब पर्ने स्पष्ट छ । यसले कठिनपूर्ण अवस्थाको सिर्जना गर्नेछ । यसका लागि विदेशी विनिमय दर नीति, वित्त नीति, आयात नीति र मौदि्रक नीतिलाई एकैसाथ प्रयोगमा ल्याउनुपर्ने देखिन्छ । योभन्दा पनि महत्त्वपूर्ण कुरा त आर्थिक मुद्दाहरूमा राजनीतिक सहमति कायम गरी लगानीको लागि उपयुक्त वातावरण र उत्पादन बढाउन जरुरी छ । उदारीकरणले मात्रै आफैं केही गर्न नसक्ने हुँदा समसामयिक रूपमा निर्यात प्रबर्द्धन र आयात नियन्त्रण पनि आवश्यक पर्ने देखिन्छ ।
लेखक न्युयोर्कस्थित न्यु स्कुल फर सोसल
रिसर्चमा विद्यावारिधी गर्दैछन् ।
praks_shrestha@yahoo.com
Map of Nepal
Tuesday, January 19, 2010
Monday, January 11, 2010
Liquidity Shortage in Nepal: Reasons and Remedies
In recent months, the Nepalese financial system has been facing an acute liquidity shortage. After the liquidity overhang for long time, the financial system actually began to face some sort of liquidity shortage since last year. Even during the festive seasons this year, people could not even draw enough cash from their deposits in the banks. As usual, the government has recently constituted a commission for investigation as a customary fashion. However, some reasons and remedies are briefly traced out here.
Some indicators showed the shortage of liquidity in the system. For instance, interbank rate has recently reached more than 12 percent; similarly 91-day Treasury bill rate exceeded more than seven percent. There was not enough biding for government treasury bills and financial institutions are raising interest rates on deposits. The data for the first quarter of 2009/10 showed that liquidity-deposit ratio declined to 29.7 percent from 35.6 percent a year ago. Similarly, cash reserve/deposit ratio of commercial banks has declined to 8.5 percent as of mid-October 2009 compared to 11.5 percent a year ago reflecting the growing relative scarcity of cash reserve in terms of deposit. The ratio may be low further if we consider the deposits of other financial institutions.
Some reasons behind this issue can be categorized as: first, the rapid expansion of financial institutions, their branches and ATMs. The fiscal year 2007/08 witnessed a speedy expansion of financial institutions ever in a single year- 5 commercial banks, 20 development banks, and 4 new finance companies. Additional 5 development banks were added in 2008/09. In addition, commercial banks engaged heavily to expand their branches. As a result, their branches increased from 390 in 2006 to 752 as in mid-July 2009. Development banks and finance companies are also in a same race of opening branches. Now, major urban areas are crowded by these institutions and their ATMs. In addition, there are microfinance institutions, financial co-operatives, money changers and money transfers operating in different parts of the country.
As all of these institutions do business of money or cash, they need to keep a certain volume of cash with themselves in order to run their daily business. In 1990, there were 441 branches of 5 commercial banks, for which they held 808.2 million cash and now for 752 branches, there were holding about 15 billion cash as in mid-July 2009, per branch roughly 20 million. It roughly shows that how much cash is needed for operating one branch. Other financial institutions must also hold some amount of cash for their business. Hence, available cash is distributed among these financial institutions. An expansion of ATMs further increases the need for cash, for example existing ATMs hold about Rs.2.0 billion cash.
Second, there is a penetration of remittance in the rural areas. Nowadays, an increasing number of people from rural areas are going abroad. With the expansion of money transfer network, these people can now directly send remittance to rural areas. In this way, people are now holding more currency because of higher income, and cash transaction has increased in rural areas too. These areas lack the presence of formal financial institutions.
Third, population is rising at about 2.5 percent annually and there is an increasing mobility of people in recent years with the expansion of road network, thereby increasing the demand for cash.
Fourth, since 2007/08, there has been an upward inflationary thrust in the economy. With the rising prices, people need more cash to maintain their daily livelihood. Last year, price level increased by 13.2 percent, which means people need 13.2 percent more cash to spend for regular shopping.
Fifth, looking at the rising inflation in recent years, the NRB has tightened the monetary policy. A rise in cash reserve requirement last year and a provision to hold statutory liquidity requirement this year has obviously put pressure on liquidity.
Sixth, there is a credit expansion in competitive way by financial institutions. They are in the market not for altruistic motive, but for earning profit to the utmost extent. For this, they are in a race of credit expansion. Since productive investment is stagnant, they are pumping the credit in the real estate for speculation. An exuberant rise in real estate price in recent years has proved this situation. One should note that a primary source of profit is not finance, but the production sector. A rapid expansion of credit in unproductive sector can create bubble in the economy, bursting of which generates a tsunami in the system.
Seventh, injection of liquidity has been slow down due to the deceleration of remittance inflows, for example the NRB injected Rs.4.6 billion by purchasing US dollar from commercial banks in the third month of 2009/10 compared to Rs. 18.5 billion in the same month last year. This is due to the impact of global recession followed by financial crisis.
Last but not least, but most important factor is the disturbance in the central bank. In the recent past, the Governor post remained vacant for a long time, thereby hampering the timely decision to be taken for note printing. Who is to be blamed for this?
How can this problem be resolved then? The problem should be looked from both a short term and a long term perspective, otherwise it can occur frequently. Considering the need of currency with the expansion of financial institutions, and their branches, the NRB needs to be accommodative in the short run to avoid imminent crisis. Rising interest rate further could be counter-productive. Monetary policy may need to be softened soon. The current liquidity shortage situation has increased the role of monetary policy in the Nepalese financial system.
Secondly, market is not perfect, it should be regulated; hence branch expansion and opening up new institutions should be tightened instead of letting the market to determine. Otherwise, a wave of crisis can erupt and drag the whole system.
Thirdly, mushrooming financial co-operatives without any supervision and regulation seem to be dangerous threat to whole financial system. They are performing almost bank like functions, creating illusion for people, doing business of cash and creating demand for cash. They should be strictly regulated. They are now in a large number, and are capable of generating a ripple effect in the financial system.
Another long term solution can be the use of bank check in transaction. So far, people prefer cash lacking trust on check. Financial sector can take this opportunity to establish credibility on using check further so that less physical cash is required for transaction.
Finally, the liquidity problem can be a reflection of political instability and uncertainty also. On the background of frequent government change and policy uncertainty, it has been reported that wealthy people tended to hold cash. Although it is necessary, political stability is still a far distant dream for Nepal.
(Prakash Kumar Shrestha is PhD Student, New School for Social Research)
Some indicators showed the shortage of liquidity in the system. For instance, interbank rate has recently reached more than 12 percent; similarly 91-day Treasury bill rate exceeded more than seven percent. There was not enough biding for government treasury bills and financial institutions are raising interest rates on deposits. The data for the first quarter of 2009/10 showed that liquidity-deposit ratio declined to 29.7 percent from 35.6 percent a year ago. Similarly, cash reserve/deposit ratio of commercial banks has declined to 8.5 percent as of mid-October 2009 compared to 11.5 percent a year ago reflecting the growing relative scarcity of cash reserve in terms of deposit. The ratio may be low further if we consider the deposits of other financial institutions.
Some reasons behind this issue can be categorized as: first, the rapid expansion of financial institutions, their branches and ATMs. The fiscal year 2007/08 witnessed a speedy expansion of financial institutions ever in a single year- 5 commercial banks, 20 development banks, and 4 new finance companies. Additional 5 development banks were added in 2008/09. In addition, commercial banks engaged heavily to expand their branches. As a result, their branches increased from 390 in 2006 to 752 as in mid-July 2009. Development banks and finance companies are also in a same race of opening branches. Now, major urban areas are crowded by these institutions and their ATMs. In addition, there are microfinance institutions, financial co-operatives, money changers and money transfers operating in different parts of the country.
As all of these institutions do business of money or cash, they need to keep a certain volume of cash with themselves in order to run their daily business. In 1990, there were 441 branches of 5 commercial banks, for which they held 808.2 million cash and now for 752 branches, there were holding about 15 billion cash as in mid-July 2009, per branch roughly 20 million. It roughly shows that how much cash is needed for operating one branch. Other financial institutions must also hold some amount of cash for their business. Hence, available cash is distributed among these financial institutions. An expansion of ATMs further increases the need for cash, for example existing ATMs hold about Rs.2.0 billion cash.
Second, there is a penetration of remittance in the rural areas. Nowadays, an increasing number of people from rural areas are going abroad. With the expansion of money transfer network, these people can now directly send remittance to rural areas. In this way, people are now holding more currency because of higher income, and cash transaction has increased in rural areas too. These areas lack the presence of formal financial institutions.
Third, population is rising at about 2.5 percent annually and there is an increasing mobility of people in recent years with the expansion of road network, thereby increasing the demand for cash.
Fourth, since 2007/08, there has been an upward inflationary thrust in the economy. With the rising prices, people need more cash to maintain their daily livelihood. Last year, price level increased by 13.2 percent, which means people need 13.2 percent more cash to spend for regular shopping.
Fifth, looking at the rising inflation in recent years, the NRB has tightened the monetary policy. A rise in cash reserve requirement last year and a provision to hold statutory liquidity requirement this year has obviously put pressure on liquidity.
Sixth, there is a credit expansion in competitive way by financial institutions. They are in the market not for altruistic motive, but for earning profit to the utmost extent. For this, they are in a race of credit expansion. Since productive investment is stagnant, they are pumping the credit in the real estate for speculation. An exuberant rise in real estate price in recent years has proved this situation. One should note that a primary source of profit is not finance, but the production sector. A rapid expansion of credit in unproductive sector can create bubble in the economy, bursting of which generates a tsunami in the system.
Seventh, injection of liquidity has been slow down due to the deceleration of remittance inflows, for example the NRB injected Rs.4.6 billion by purchasing US dollar from commercial banks in the third month of 2009/10 compared to Rs. 18.5 billion in the same month last year. This is due to the impact of global recession followed by financial crisis.
Last but not least, but most important factor is the disturbance in the central bank. In the recent past, the Governor post remained vacant for a long time, thereby hampering the timely decision to be taken for note printing. Who is to be blamed for this?
How can this problem be resolved then? The problem should be looked from both a short term and a long term perspective, otherwise it can occur frequently. Considering the need of currency with the expansion of financial institutions, and their branches, the NRB needs to be accommodative in the short run to avoid imminent crisis. Rising interest rate further could be counter-productive. Monetary policy may need to be softened soon. The current liquidity shortage situation has increased the role of monetary policy in the Nepalese financial system.
Secondly, market is not perfect, it should be regulated; hence branch expansion and opening up new institutions should be tightened instead of letting the market to determine. Otherwise, a wave of crisis can erupt and drag the whole system.
Thirdly, mushrooming financial co-operatives without any supervision and regulation seem to be dangerous threat to whole financial system. They are performing almost bank like functions, creating illusion for people, doing business of cash and creating demand for cash. They should be strictly regulated. They are now in a large number, and are capable of generating a ripple effect in the financial system.
Another long term solution can be the use of bank check in transaction. So far, people prefer cash lacking trust on check. Financial sector can take this opportunity to establish credibility on using check further so that less physical cash is required for transaction.
Finally, the liquidity problem can be a reflection of political instability and uncertainty also. On the background of frequent government change and policy uncertainty, it has been reported that wealthy people tended to hold cash. Although it is necessary, political stability is still a far distant dream for Nepal.
(Prakash Kumar Shrestha is PhD Student, New School for Social Research)
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